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Anyone who uses "Mac" and "marketshare" in the same sentence is a big fat idiot

Friday, April 9th, 2004  by Bill Palmer

No wait, let me revise that: they might not be big or fat. But certainly they're an idiot. I'm so tired of reading devastatingly misleading articles about how Apple has "failed" to increase Mac marketshare, I could puke. They're complete nonsense from top to bottom. Because while increasing the total number of Mac users is vital to the ongoing prosperity of the platform, and it's one of Apple's stated goals, "marketshare" has absolutely nothing to do with it. People are Switching to the Mac in spades. For proof, all you have to do is more or less stick your head out the window and look around. Want evidence? How about the fact that the Internet is just littered with first-person Switch stories? You can figure that for every Switcher who took the time to publish his or her story on the web, there are a thousand Switchers who didn't. The great influx into the Mac platform has begun.

Want more evidence? Go hang out in an Apple Store and listen to the conversations between the customers and salespeople, get a feel for how many of them have never owned a Mac before (based on the kinds of questions they're asking), and then watch how many of them end up leaving with their first Mac. Switchers are coming from Windows, from UNIX, from Linux, you name it. The influx is coming from all sides. I happen to know first hand, because so many of them seem to feel compelled to write in and tell me about it.

But perhaps because they know that doing so will infuriate us and in turn drive up the hit count on their website, or perhaps because they're simply in denial themselves, various reporters have chosen to simply pretend that the phenomenon isn't happening. And the easiest way to do so, of course, is to find a statistic that has nothing at all to do with the size of the user base, and then continue pointing to it as so-called "evidence" even as more and more people around them go ahead and make the Switch. So nevermind that substituting marketshare numbers for user base numbers makes no sense at all. If you claim enough times that it does, then some readers not paying close enough attention will be conned into falling for the notion that marketshare has anything at all to do with the total number of users.

So why doesn't it? That's easy. Macs stay relevant longer, allowing users to continue using their Macs for far longer before having to buy a new one. In the time that a Mac user buys one new computer, a PC user has likely bought two. Does this mean that there are suddenly two new PC users and only one new Mac user? No, actually, it means that there are no "new" users at all. The Mac user remained a Mac user, and the PC user remained a PC user. But marketshare numbers show two PC's purchased and only one Mac. If you didn't know any better (or if someone were trying desperately to con you), you might be tempted to look at the numbers and conclude that there were somehow two PC users, when in fact it was just the same guy buying two PC's.

So when you look at the worldwide marketshare numbers among computer vendors, you see that Apple holds around three percent of the market, and that it's been holding steady (fluctuating slightly) for the past few years. Wow, what a story! Apple's marketshare is tiny, and the company has failed to increase it! Let's put it on the front page! No, no, no, no. Nice try, con artists. If we are instead to look at the size of the Mac user base, a statistic which actually has any relevancy to the situation, you get a whole different (and accurate) story.

Those who have actually taken the time to crunch the numbers have estimated that somewhere between eight and twelve percent of all consumers use Macs. And as I said, anyone not living in a bomb shelter is aware of the sheer volume of Switchers that have made their way to the platform in the past few years. For that matter, the fact that marketshare has remained steady actually proves that the user base is growing. So reality is that the Mac user base is impressively large and continues to grow. Any "journalist" who talks about Mac marketshare instead of Mac user base, in an attempt to claim that almost no one uses a Mac and the ranks are decreasing, doesn't deserve to be called a journalist. Instead of reading their article, write to their boss and demand that they be fired. Or better yet, just skip their article entirely.

Anytime someone writes one of those sensationalistic articles, they can't help but give it an equally sensationalistic title -- which is your cue to skip it entirely. Let's collectively put a stop to journalists getting away with boosting their own notoriety by pretending that the Mac use base is small and shrinking. They don't have the right to misleadingly spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about our platform, simply in the name of bringing people to their website. So if you see a link to such an article, try to get 'em fired or just skip their article, but whatever you do, don't click through to it. Just by clicking through, they can claim to their boss that you came to the site and read the article. Don't give 'em the satisfaction. In fact, let their boss know that you don't intend to read anything on their website until the misleading crap has been brought to a close.

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